The Smart Phone is the Truly Personal Computer

The inherent identity of a mobile phone is the most important aspect the emerging mobile centric world. Unlike the desktop world, the phone is truly one user-one device. It’s always been tied to a person’s phone number…the way you get in touch with them. The PC, whether a laptop or a desktop, has never been personal like a smart phone; it’s just single user.

For smartphone apps, this is a subtle but vital difference. PCs are often only used by one person, but that’s not the central use paradigm. Browser based applications always require a login. Apps on your smart phone only require a set up. From then on the apps know it’s you. Windows and Macs do have log-ins and key-rings and other conveniences for filling-in passwords, but this subtle shift in UX is important. For app developers, mobile allows much more intimate engagement.

I most appreciate the importance of this one-person, one-phone paradigm when using our shared kitchen iPad. Pads and Tablets have yet to work this through. The apps assume only one person is using it, easier on the apps, harder on the iPad users.

We are only just beginning to appreciate the power in mobile. It’s an extension, an enhancement, an augmentation of the person. This is already changing communication. It is only just beginning to change how we find things, find out about things, interact with things, and buy things. It’s what makes the cloud meaningfully interactive. It’s what will make the Internet of things useful.

Bill Girly’s recent post, Transitioning to a Mobile Centric World, does a great job of articulating the importance and power of mobile identity and engagement.

When I was in High School, I heard Alan Kay make the absurd and provocative statement, “a computer wont truly be personal until we are wearing it.” We are now living in Alan’s world.

Don’t Be Fooled, VC Trends are UP not Down

Too much of the VC discussion focuses on low 10-year average returns – basically zero – and the deinvestment in Venture Capital as an asset class with the number of firms declining precipitously.

We’re at the beginning of an explosion of wealth creation from startups bringing mobile, social, cloud computing, connected things and big data to every aspect of our lives. The impact of these technologies and resultant shifts in business, commercial practices and consumer behavior is greater than that from desktop computing and the Internet. And like all swift technology adoption startups, not incumbents, will drive the change and reap the rewards.

To measure this impact, exit values are what matters. The upward trend of wealth creation is clear even before you adjust for strong countervailing factors: the over commitment of capital caused by the late 90’s exuberance; the concentration of IT spend for Y2K; and the retreat of capital from the Tech IPO market. When adjusted you see a liquidity ratio returning to 4+ and exit values trending to $80B with no top in sight.

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Mark Siegel at Menlo Ventures has it right, “this bodes well for returns going up”.